Tue, Jan 25, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 5, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 310 | 114 | 18 | 532 |
| WPG | 214 | 18 | 013 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09FLAMason MarchmentAssists: Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 8:19WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Brenden Dillon, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 12:06FLAMason MarchmentAssists: Sam Reinhart, Lucas Carlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 12:57WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Cole Perfetti, Dylan Samberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 17:33FLAAnton LundellAssists: Mason Marchment, Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 3:30WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Nate Schmidt · Slap, 0.32 xG3–3
- P2 9:42FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Maxim Mamin · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–3
- P3 12:10FLASam BennettAssists: Anthony Duclair, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:42FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:04WPGDylan Samberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:30FLAMason Marchment: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:55WPGVille Heinola: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:03FLABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:25WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:26WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Mamin8:55
xG 1.18–0.40 (75%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Marchment – Lundell9:43
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 3–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett7:50
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Lomberg – Tippett – Luostarinen6:37
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad14:12
xG 1.12–0.51 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Carlsson – Priskie9:18
xG 1.10–0.50 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 4–0
- Gudas – Weegar2:00
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Perfetti11:08
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Stastny – Lowry – Poganski6:35
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Harkins – Svechnikov – Vesalainen4:38
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp13:00
xG 0.51–0.92 (36%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPionk – Heinola2:17
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dillon – Beaulieu2:47
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Schmidt2:55
xG 0.00–0.06 (1%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).