Thu, Jan 27, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 5, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 39 | 25 | 010 | 524 |
| MTL | 016 | 212 | 212 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:14ANASam CarrickAssists: Sam Steel, Buddy Robinson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 15:12ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Troy Terry, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 17:06ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 1:15MTLJake EvansAssists: Rem Pitlick, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 1:25ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 9:54MTLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 14:04ANATrevor ZegrasGWGAssists: Troy Terry, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 1:24MTLJake EvansAssists: Rem Pitlick · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–3
- P3 14:02MTLLaurent DauphinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:55ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:17MTLLaurent Dauphin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 9:26ANASam Carrick: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:14MTLRem Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:14MTLChris Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:02ANAHampus Lindholm: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestRakell – Terry – Lundeström3:41
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Carrick – Rakell – Terry2:36
xG 0.00–0.03 (1%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Robinson – Steel – Zegras2:47
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Comtois – Lundeström5:45
xG 0.04–0.18 (17%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson14:22
xG 0.66–0.20 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit11:03
xG 0.15–0.63 (19%)attempts 6–20goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale14:45
xG 0.34–0.83 (29%)attempts 4–15goals 2–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Pitlick12:06
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Toffoli – Lehkonen – Suzuki10:20
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Dauphin – Poehling10:57
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Paquette – Vejdemo – Pezzetta3:14
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Chiarot15:08
xG 0.85–0.26 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 2–2
- Wideman – Romanov8:43
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Wideman – Kulak2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).