Thu, Jan 27, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 014 | 17 | 233 |
| TBL | 018 | 211 | 16 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 1:46TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 14:16TBLMathieu JosephSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 10:55NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 11:55TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:10TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:52NJDAndreas Johnsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:21TBLJan Rutta: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:50NJDDamon Severson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Sharangovich – Hughes12:25
xG 0.81–0.63 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Vesey – Kuokkanen – Boqvist10:25
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johnsson – Mercer10:41
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zacha – Bastian – Hischier12:10
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Subban – Graves18:14
xG 0.85–0.83 (51%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- White – Smith11:43
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler18:10
xG 0.51–1.00 (34%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Joseph12:47
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton9:57
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:31
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli12:48
xG 0.55–0.66 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta14:20
xG 0.83–0.25 (77%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote4:08
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:47
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).