Fri, Jan 28, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 5, Dallas Stars 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 319 | 28 | 02 | 529 |
| DAL | 014 | 08 | 07 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29WSHTom WilsonPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 7:54WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 13:08WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Connor McMichael, Joe Snively · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 12:03WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Lars Eller, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 16:50WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:19DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:21DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:07WSHCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:03WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Sheary – Sprong10:29
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:29
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Eller – Snively – McMichael9:39
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:18
xG 0.64–0.78 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – van Riemsdyk12:14
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Orlov13:35
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:20
xG 0.86–0.66 (57%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:38
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kero9:02
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta9:30
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov11:59
xG 0.37–0.97 (28%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Hakanpää6:17
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell7:31
xG 0.24–0.33 (43%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Lindell7:53
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).