Sat, Jan 29, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 112 | 111 | 01 | 03 | 4 | 327 |
| TBL | 04 | 05 | 217 | 03 | 3 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25VGKBrett HowdenAssists: William Carrier · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 14:56VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 13:12TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 17:12TBLCorey PerryUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 2. VGK Nicolas Roy scored
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. VGK Shea Theodore scored
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 6. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 7. TBL Alex Killorn stopped
- 8. VGK Evgenii Dadonov stopped
- 9. TBL Corey Perry stopped
- 10. VGK Nolan Patrick stopped
- 11. TBL Ross Colton scored
- 12. VGK William Karlsson scored
- 13. TBL Patrick Maroon stopped
- 14. VGK Mark Stone scored
Penalties (4)
- P2 19:12TBLPatrick Maroon: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:04VGKNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:55VGKMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:09VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Howden7:53
xG 0.75–0.07 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Patrick11:48
xG 0.70–0.42 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:38
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Janmark – Roy10:34
xG 0.13–0.59 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore18:00
xG 1.01–0.56 (64%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague12:08
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Point5:32
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton6:36
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph8:31
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta13:19
xG 0.72–0.23 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote2:41
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev3:45
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).