Sat, Jan 29, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 28 | 16 | 424 |
| STL | 111 | 02 | 016 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:23WPGPaul StastnyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:57WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 12:35WPGNate SchmidtPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 17:25WPGPaul StastnyENAssists: Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:25WPGJohnathan Kovacevic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:31WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:03STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:50WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:50STLNiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:05STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P3 2:57WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P3 9:37WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:13WPGPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:11STLBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Lowry – Poganski8:19
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp9:44
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Perfetti8:41
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen4:29
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPionk – Heinola13:40
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Dillon – Schmidt13:17
xG 0.89–0.64 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Chisholm9:19
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Kostin7:04
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas6:10
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- O'Reilly – Buchnevich – Barbashev7:25
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Schenn – Saad7:54
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Mikkola15:14
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug12:26
xG 0.54–0.76 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Scandella8:35
xG 0.14–0.79 (15%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).