Thu, Feb 17, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 04 | 114 | 00 | 227 |
| MTL | 111 | 09 | 19 | 11 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13MTLPaul ByronAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 18:26STLRobert ThomasSHAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 18:41STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:50MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Chris Wideman, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 2:22MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:41STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
- P1 10:20MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:20STLKlim Kostin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:44STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:52MTLCorey Schueneman: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:17STLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:49STLJustin Faulk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:06STLNiko Mikkola: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:23MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P3 13:28MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:28STLPavel Buchnevich: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25MTLAlexander Romanov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas8:18
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Joshua – Kostin2:58
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad8:53
xG 0.29–0.20 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Kyrou4:35
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug14:22
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Walman7:23
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Parayko – Mikkola12:50
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Gallagher – Dauphin7:53
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Poehling6:21
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield10:08
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Evans – Pitlick6:51
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak13:13
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Romanov – Schueneman15:14
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Wideman – Clague6:24
xG 0.18–0.45 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).