Tue, Feb 1, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 16 | 17 | 01 | 221 |
| TBL | 09 | 29 | 012 | 12 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:32TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brayden Point, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 4:50SJSRudolfs BalcersAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 18:08TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 1:12SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Brent Burns, Alexander Barabanov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 2:45TBLVictor HedmanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:07SJSNicolas Meloche: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:58TBLJan Rutta: Interference2 min
- P2 11:58TBLCal Foote: Interference2 min
- P2 16:02SJSRudolfs Balcers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:51SJSLogan Couture: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24SJSTimo Meier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:31TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 2:06TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:06SJSTimo Meier: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Balcers – Dahlen8:20
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Pederson – Gregor – Gadjovich5:45
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Nieto9:19
xG 0.00–0.59 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–1
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov14:31
xG 0.38–1.21 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Meloche11:49
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Middleton14:54
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Burns – Ferraro19:02
xG 0.25–1.73 (13%)attempts 11–26goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Cirelli12:45
xG 1.34–0.30 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare12:16
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton6:14
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph8:39
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev13:41
xG 1.39–0.24 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Hedman – Foote2:49
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta14:19
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).