Tue, Feb 1, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 06 | 111 | 17 | 00 | 1 | 324 |
| COL | 010 | 217 | 09 | 04 | 0 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:42COLNazem KadriUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 12:54ARIAlex GalchenyukAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Clayton Keller · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:17COLMikko RantanenAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:22ARILawson CrouseAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 2. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 3. ARI Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. ARI Clayton Keller stopped
- 6. COL Nazem Kadri stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:11COLTyson Jost: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:11COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P1 16:09ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:16COLNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:08ARIAnton Stralman: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:21ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:34ARILawson Crouse: Holding2 min
- OT 2:46COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Rantanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Boyd – Crouse11:35
xG 0.60–0.12 (83%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Roussel – Fischer8:28
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Galchenyuk – Schmaltz – Keller11:17
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ladd – Dzingel – O'Brien7:28
xG 0.09–0.36 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Mayo11:32
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin12:30
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Mayo – Lyubushkin2:07
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Nichushkin – Rantanen11:10
xG 0.59–0.08 (88%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Compher – Jost – O'Connor8:01
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Sikura9:39
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- MacDermid – Aube-Kubel – Maltsev5:39
xG 0.07–0.60 (11%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard2:39
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray6:27
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar13:58
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).