Wed, Feb 2, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 226 | 116 | 18 | 450 |
| ARI | 18 | 110 | 010 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:34ARIAlex GalchenyukAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:50CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 4:14ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 15:15CGYChris TanevGWGAssists: Blake Coleman, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 12:06CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Oliver Kylington, Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:53ARILawson Crouse: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:40CGYErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:40ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:01ARIJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:57CGYNoah Hanifin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:05
xG 0.84–0.20 (81%)attempts 22–4goals 3–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk16:50
xG 1.50–0.87 (63%)attempts 28–18goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Monahan – Dube7:35
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka10:22
xG 1.01–0.92 (52%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington16:10
xG 1.96–0.78 (71%)attempts 28–18goals 3–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov13:10
xG 1.54–0.59 (72%)attempts 27–5goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson16:54
xG 0.76–0.91 (46%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – Schmaltz – Keller13:59
xG 1.11–0.31 (78%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Eriksson – O'Brien – Fischer4:05
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Ladd – Nash – Roussel7:01
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Ladd – O'Brien2:09
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Capobianco – Chychrun14:55
xG 0.94–0.92 (50%)attempts 19–23goals 2–0
- Mayo – Chychrun2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo16:44
xG 0.53–0.96 (36%)attempts 14–25goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).