Thu, Feb 24, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 010 | 19 | 130 |
| VAN | 011 | 513 | 214 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:42VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 10:18VANJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 10:50VANBo HorvatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 18:42VANBo HorvatPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.27 xG0–4
- P2 19:55VANJ.T. MillerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–5
- P3 4:33VANConor GarlandAssists: Tanner Pearson, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–6
- P3 7:23VANElias PetterssonSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG0–7
- P3 17:53CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:24CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:20CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:47CGYSean Monahan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:26CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:55CGYRasmus Andersson: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P3 6:30VANTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P3 8:33CGYDillon Dube: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:49CGYMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:43CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:26CGYMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:26CGYAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk13:54
xG 1.12–0.54 (67%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:22
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Lewis – Dube – Ruzicka6:27
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Toffoli – Monahan9:34
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov15:36
xG 0.77–0.37 (67%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson13:25
xG 0.90–0.56 (61%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Tanev – Kylington12:43
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Podkolzin8:45
xG 0.90–0.26 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Motte – Horvat – Boeser3:45
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Dickinson – Horvat – Boeser4:32
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Garland9:36
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Hughes13:36
xG 1.02–0.53 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Hunt11:52
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson14:16
xG 0.16–0.83 (16%)attempts 8–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).