Fri, Feb 25, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Buffalo Sabres 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 114 | 111 | 113 | 338 |
| STL | 26 | 111 | 26 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25BUFDylan CozensAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 7:06STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: David Perron, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 14:23STLJordan KyrouAssists: Justin Faulk, Ivan Barbashev · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 3:27BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 19:25STLJake WalmanAssists: Brandon Saad, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 12:34BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Peyton Krebs, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 13:57STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Ivan Barbashev · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:27STLBrayden SchennENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:07STLJake Walman: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:57BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:29STLDavid Perron: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 10:33BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:53STLJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 0:46BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:42STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:42BUFJeff Skinner: Embellishment2 min
- P2 17:22STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:43STLKlim Kostin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson11:03
xG 1.09–0.25 (81%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Asplund – Cozens6:33
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–2goals 1–1
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork4:10
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Cozens2:16
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Samuelsson10:34
xG 0.84–0.08 (92%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Bryson – Dahlin2:26
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Hagg10:24
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Barbashev – Kyrou10:43
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas8:02
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad11:03
xG 0.21–0.83 (20%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Walman7:08
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Parayko – Walman2:19
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola13:30
xG 0.40–0.83 (32%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).