Sat, Feb 26, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 3, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 14 | 014 | 27 | 325 |
| CGY | 318 | 28 | 29 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Jon Merrill, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 10:29CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 11:49CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P1 17:42CGYErik GudbransonAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 16:44CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Blake Coleman, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P2 19:19CGYBlake ColemanSHAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 13:25MINNick BjugstadAssists: Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 14:35MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 18:06CGYMatthew TkachukENAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
- P3 19:18CGYTyler ToffoliENAssists: Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:41MINBrandon Duhaime: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:55CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P2 12:55MINKirill Kaprizov: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:31CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:39CGYErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:39MINBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:39MINConnor Dewar: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:17CGYBrad Richardson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:17MINKirill Kaprizov: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:57CGYOliver Kylington: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:57MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P3 11:17MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
- P3 16:45MINMats Zuccarello: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hartman – Dewar5:01
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm4:22
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov3:22
xG 0.02–0.03 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov7:18
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Spurgeon7:49
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Benn – Merrill12:32
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 4–17goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Brodin14:51
xG 1.02–1.34 (43%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk7:36
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane8:29
xG 0.62–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
- Richardson – Lewis – Ritchie7:57
xG 0.43–0.42 (50%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Lucic – Toffoli – Monahan8:55
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson11:27
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 2–2
- Gudbranson – Zadorov13:15
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Tanev – Zadorov2:28
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).