Thu, Mar 3, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 211 | 05 | 116 | 00 | 332 |
| CHI | 28 | 012 | 110 | 12 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34CHISam LaffertyAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:35EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:55CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Strome, Caleb Jones · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 19:26EDMEvander KaneAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 2:49CHIDominik KubalikUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:10EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:23CHIAlex DeBrincatPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:22CHIDominik Kubalik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:27CHIDominik Kubalik: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:34CHISam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:36EDMDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:50CHICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P2 14:41CHIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:59EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestShore – Ryan – McLeod3:40
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hyman – Foegele – McDavid8:01
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto6:20
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Yamamoto – McLeod2:06
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lagesson3:10
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard2:09
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Bouchard14:11
xG 0.92–0.90 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Kubalik – Strome12:27
xG 0.92–0.55 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Toews – Johnson – DeBrincat9:27
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Lafferty – Kurashev5:26
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Hagel – Entwistle – Dach11:38
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Jones15:32
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Murphy – McCabe3:07
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Murphy – Jones9:48
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).