Thu, Mar 3, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 1, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 012 | 118 | 013 | 143 |
| ARI | 08 | 113 | 18 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:48COLDevon ToewsAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 18:11ARILoui ErikssonAssists: Antoine Roussel, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 5:27ARINick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P2 8:57ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:45COLNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:07ARIAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P3 19:56ARIDysin Mayo: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:56COLNathan MacKinnon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:56ARIJakob Chychrun: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56ARIDysin Mayo: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Fischer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Landeskog – Newhook9:59
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:27
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Helm – MacDermid – Aube-Kubel4:31
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Compher – Jost – O'Connor7:08
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray5:56
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Johnson – Girard9:14
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard4:18
xG 0.22–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Schmaltz – Keller13:01
xG 0.68–0.48 (59%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Roussel – Fischer – Crouse10:19
xG 0.70–0.70 (50%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Hayton9:24
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Kessel – Galchenyuk – Maccelli11:06
xG 0.17–0.69 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Mayo13:57
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Mayo – Chychrun2:25
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stralman – Gostisbehere2:03
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).