Sat, Mar 5, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Ottawa Senators 5, Arizona Coyotes 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 315 | 218 | 546 |
| ARI | 210 | 210 | 411 | 831 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 13:53ARIClayton KellerAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 2:50ARINick SchmaltzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 12:35ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Phil Kessel, Shayne Gostisbehere · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 13:54OTTParker KellyAssists: Thomas Chabot, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 15:11OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 16:06OTTParker KellyAssists: Connor Brown, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 0:56OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Tim Stützle, Adam Gaudette · Tip-in, 0.23 xG4–4
- P3 1:53OTTNick PaulAssists: Nick Holden, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
- P3 4:07ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–5
- P3 6:57ARILawson CrousePPGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–6
- P3 14:53ARIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Dysin Mayo · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–7
- P3 16:26ARIDysin MayoAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:03OTTNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:45ARIPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:18OTTAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P1 19:18OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:18ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:09ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:12OTTNick Paul: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:11OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Fischer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Sanford – White6:45
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly5:39
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Gaudette – Formenton – Stützle9:33
xG 0.67–0.66 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk7:15
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev12:33
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Holden – Zub14:16
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Brown – Brannstrom7:32
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Schmaltz – Keller14:09
xG 1.05–0.42 (72%)attempts 9–17goals 3–0
- Roussel – Fischer – Crouse10:02
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Kessel – Galchenyuk – Maccelli7:03
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 1–2
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Hayton10:17
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Mayo13:29
xG 1.35–0.41 (77%)attempts 11–18goals 6–0
- Chychrun – Kolyachonok14:58
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 16–15goals 0–3
- Stralman – Chychrun2:24
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).