Sat, Mar 5, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 8, San Jose Sharks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 215 | 410 | 836 |
| SJS | 05 | 09 | 06 | 020 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:43NSHMichael McCarronGWGAssists: Philip Tomasino, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:30NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 2:43NSHMatt LuffAssists: Philip Tomasino, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–0
- P2 19:30NSHMatt LuffAssists: Philip Tomasino, Michael McCarron · Slap, 0.26 xG4–0
- P3 4:43NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–0
- P3 6:07NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Matt Luff, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.14 xG6–0
- P3 11:13NSHYakov TreninUnassisted · Slap, 0.27 xG7–0
- P3 13:06NSHMikael GranlundPPAssists: Michael McCarron, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.19 xG8–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:49NSHLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:49SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:04NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:34SJSTimo Meier: Interference2 min
- P2 5:08NSHFilip Forsberg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:42SJSNicolas Meloche: Holding2 min
- P2 16:03NSHTanner Jeannot: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:03SJSTomas Hertl: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 6:34NSHColton Sissons: Holding2 min
- P3 12:57SJSJonah Gadjovich: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:41SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:41NSHBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:21SJSJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:21NSHLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:21SJSJake Middleton: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Luff – Tomasino7:20
xG 0.97–0.14 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 4–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg8:30
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:26
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen9:59
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro14:37
xG 1.61–0.34 (82%)attempts 22–10goals 4–0
- Benning – Harpur12:06
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier13:25
xG 0.25–0.59 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Bonino – Nieto – Gregor5:21
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Dzingel – Nieto2:52
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Couture – Gregor – Barabanov2:54
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Balcers9:52
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Burns – Merkley2:03
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Simek – Merkley11:06
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Burns – Middleton14:21
xG 0.45–0.82 (36%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).