Sun, Mar 6, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
St. Louis Blues 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 012 | 01 | 28 | 00 | 221 |
| NJD | 115 | 18 | 09 | 11 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:47NJDTy SmithAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 9:26NJDDawson MercerAssists: Jack Hughes, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 2:08STLTorey KrugAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:44STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 1:12NJDDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Pavel Zacha, Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:54STLNiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:52STLNiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:35STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:35NJDDawson Mercer: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:09STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:12STLTorey Krug: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:11NJDRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:00STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Saad10:12
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Kyrou2:28
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas7:48
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Barbashev3:07
xG 0.16–0.20 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Walman6:46
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola8:00
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Faulk – Walman3:31
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Bratt – Hischier9:49
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer10:56
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Johnsson – Zacha – Boqvist8:47
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Vesey – Bastian – McLeod7:13
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Smith12:54
xG 1.03–0.66 (61%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
- Hamilton – Graves14:29
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler13:44
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).