Sun, Mar 6, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 015 | 19 | 016 | 140 |
| VGK | 017 | 115 | 110 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:46VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 8:53OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Colin White, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 19:54VGKJack EichelPPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:33VGKMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:55OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:24VGKBen Hutton: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:14OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Sanford – White11:53
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk12:54
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Formenton – Stützle11:01
xG 0.64–0.84 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly9:33
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev18:20
xG 1.09–0.80 (58%)attempts 19–26goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub20:01
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 22–18goals 0–0
- Brown – Brannstrom8:19
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Carrier – Amadio11:43
xG 0.62–0.26 (71%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:30
xG 0.92–0.79 (54%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Eichel – Roy11:52
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Kolesar – Leschyshyn7:22
xG 0.06–0.30 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Coghlan11:05
xG 0.63–0.35 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore2:42
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud17:45
xG 0.35–0.72 (32%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).