Mon, Mar 7, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 313 | 013 | 27 | 533 |
| CBJ | 05 | 214 | 216 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Pierre Engvall, David Kampf · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 14:01TORMitch MarnerAssists: Michael Bunting, Timothy Liljegren · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 17:06TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, TJ Brodie · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 1:45CBJSean KuralyAssists: Max Domi · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 18:49CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 2:28CBJJack RoslovicPPAssists: Max Domi, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 4:19TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Jason Spezza, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 11:21TORMichael BuntingGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 19:12CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Zach Werenski, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:43CBJBrendan Gaunce: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:17TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P2 7:35CBJMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:35TORJustin Holl: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:44CBJBoone Jenner: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P3 0:52TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:00TORTimothy Liljegren: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews12:39
xG 1.74–0.74 (70%)attempts 20–10goals 3–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev8:46
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander2:02
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Robertson10:59
xG 0.79–0.91 (47%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren13:00
xG 2.05–0.50 (80%)attempts 21–12goals 3–1
- Dermott – Lyubushkin14:51
xG 0.82–1.09 (43%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Brodie – Holl16:21
xG 0.60–1.32 (31%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic12:57
xG 1.10–0.36 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Domi – Danforth12:43
xG 1.10–0.82 (57%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Gaunce – Chinakhov – Sillinger4:47
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
- Nyquist – Jenner – Laine10:48
xG 0.45–1.63 (22%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Peeke2:15
xG 0.72–0.10 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Bean9:02
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Werenski – Peeke16:20
xG 1.02–1.85 (36%)attempts 16–20goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).