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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 7, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.

CBJ winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:17Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  3. P1 0:50Shot by Robertson, saved by Merzlikins
  4. P1 1:23Shot by Kampf, saved by Merzlikins
  5. P1 1:31Shot by Lyubushkin, saved by Merzlikins
  6. P1 2:04Shot by Bean, saved by Mrazek
  7. P1 2:43Gaunce: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Gaunce, Kukan, Gavrikov, Chinakhov, Sillinger · TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Brodie, Holl, Kerfoot

  8. P1 3:52Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins4v5
  9. P1 7:25Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Mrazek
  10. P1 7:56Shot by Rielly, saved by Merzlikins
  11. P1 8:06Goal by Mikheyev (Engvall, Kampf)+12 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gaunce, Werenski, Peeke, Chinakhov, Sillinger · TOR Rielly, Engvall, Liljegren, Kampf, Mikheyev

  12. P1 9:20Shot by Kukan, saved by Mrazek
  13. P1 9:42Shot by Dermott, saved by Merzlikins
  14. P1 10:17Tavares: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Voracek, Bjorkstrand, Roslovic, Werenski, Peeke · TOR Simmonds, Tavares, Rielly, Kerfoot, Lyubushkin

  15. P1 11:24Shot by Werenski, saved by Mrazek5v4
  16. P1 12:15Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Mrazek5v4
  17. P1 13:41Shot by Bunting, saved by Merzlikins
  18. P1 13:43Shot by Marner, saved by Merzlikins
  19. P1 14:01Goal by Marner (Bunting, Liljegren)+16 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Nyquist, Jenner, Werenski, Laine, Peeke · TOR Rielly, Bunting, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  20. P1 16:21Shot by Robertson, saved by Merzlikins
  21. P1 17:06Goal by Matthews (Marner, Brodie)+10 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Nyquist, Jenner, Kukan, Gavrikov, Laine · TOR Brodie, Holl, Bunting, Marner, Matthews

  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:49Shot by Nyquist, saved by Mrazek
  25. P2 1:40Shot by Werenski, saved by Mrazek
  26. P2 1:45Goal by Kuraly (Domi)+9 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Kuraly, Bjorkstrand, Domi, Werenski, Peeke · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Liljegren, Robertson

  27. P2 2:35Shot by Laine, saved by Mrazek
  28. P2 3:45Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins
  29. P2 3:48Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  30. P2 3:53Shot by Kukan, saved by Mrazek
  31. P2 4:51Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Merzlikins
  32. P2 5:41Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Mrazek
  33. P2 6:06Shot by Rielly, saved by Merzlikins
  34. P2 7:04Shot by Gavrikov, saved by Mrazek
  35. P2 7:35Domi: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: CBJ Kuraly, Domi, Werenski, Peeke, Danforth · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Robertson

  36. P2 7:35Holl: Fighting (5 min)4v5

    On ice: CBJ Kuraly, Domi, Werenski, Peeke, Danforth · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Robertson

  37. P2 7:41Shot by Roslovic, saved by Mrazek
  38. P2 8:54Shot by Roslovic, saved by Mrazek
  39. P2 8:56Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Mrazek
  40. P2 10:45Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  41. P2 10:49Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  42. P2 10:50Shot by Bunting, saved by Merzlikins
  43. P2 11:40Shot by Rielly, saved by Merzlikins
  44. P2 12:50Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Merzlikins
  45. P2 13:24Shot by Voracek, saved by Mrazek
  46. P2 13:38Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Merzlikins
  47. P2 14:07Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Merzlikins
  48. P2 14:34Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins
  49. P2 14:53Shot by Nyquist, saved by Mrazek
  50. P2 16:22Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins
  51. P2 17:44Jenner: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Nyquist, Jenner, Kukan, Gavrikov, Laine · TOR Spezza, Dermott, Marner, Matthews, Lyubushkin

  52. P2 17:44Dermott: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: CBJ Nyquist, Jenner, Kukan, Gavrikov, Laine · TOR Spezza, Dermott, Marner, Matthews, Lyubushkin

  53. P2 18:49Goal by Bjorkstrand (Nyquist, Peeke)4v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Nyquist, Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Peeke · TOR Rielly, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  54. P2 19:53Shot by Werenski, saved by Mrazek
  55. P2 0:00Period end
  56. P3 0:00Period start
  57. P3 0:52Tavares: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Kuraly, Domi, Werenski, Peeke, Danforth · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Liljegren, Robertson

  58. P3 2:28Goal by Roslovic (Domi, Nyquist)5v4+27 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Nyquist, Domi, Roslovic, Bean, Chinakhov · TOR Brodie, Holl, Engvall, Kampf

  59. P3 2:48Shot by Robertson, saved by Merzlikins
  60. P3 3:01Shot by Domi, saved by Mrazek
  61. P3 3:15Shot by Kuraly, saved by Mrazek
  62. P3 3:22Shot by Kuraly, saved by Mrazek
  63. P3 3:45Shot by Jenner, saved by Mrazek
  64. P3 4:03Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  65. P3 4:19Goal by Kerfoot (Spezza, Simmonds)+30 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gaunce, Carlsson, Bean, Chinakhov, Sillinger · TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Rielly, Kerfoot, Liljegren

  66. P3 5:58Shot by Peeke, saved by Mrazek
  67. P3 5:59Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Mrazek
  68. P3 7:56Shot by Peeke, saved by Mrazek
  69. P3 8:56Shot by Bunting, saved by Merzlikins
  70. P3 9:26Shot by Laine, saved by Mrazek
  71. P3 11:21Goal by Bunting (Matthews, Brodie)+13 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Kuraly, Domi, Werenski, Peeke, Danforth · TOR Brodie, Holl, Bunting, Marner, Matthews

  72. P3 13:05Shot by Laine, saved by Mrazek
  73. P3 13:24Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Mrazek
  74. P3 14:21Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins
  75. P3 15:37Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  76. P3 16:32Shot by Danforth, saved by Mrazek
  77. P3 17:00Liljegren: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: CBJ Voracek, Nyquist, Jenner, Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Laine · TOR Rielly, Engvall, Liljegren, Kampf, Mikheyev

  78. P3 18:20Shot by Laine, saved by Mrazek6v4
  79. P3 18:28Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Mrazek6v4
  80. P3 19:12Goal by Laine (Werenski, Voracek)6v5+3 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Voracek, Nyquist, Jenner, Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Laine · TOR Brodie, Holl, Kerfoot, Liljegren, Kampf

  81. P3 19:40Shot by Laine, saved by Mrazek6v5
  82. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  83. P3 0:00Final