Thu, Mar 10, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Seattle Kraken 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 08 | 010 | 315 | 00 | 333 |
| OTT | 17 | 212 | 07 | 11 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:32OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Nick Holden · Slap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 5:43OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Artem Zub, Tim Stützle · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 7:40OTTParker KellyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 9:14SEAJared McCannAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 9:50SEARyan DonatoAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Morgan Geekie · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 13:01SEAMason AppletonAssists: Yanni Gourde, Colin Blackwell · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 2:34OTTJosh NorrisPPGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Connor Brown · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:27SEARyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:20OTTParker Kelly: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:37SEAAlexander Wennberg: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:59SEAMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Donato – Geekie6:33
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Gourde – Appleton13:33
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Schwartz – Wennberg14:19
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Eberle – Johansson – McCann8:07
xG 0.19–0.74 (21%)attempts 5–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Soucy4:25
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Giordano – Larsson6:16
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Fleury – Dunn16:12
xG 0.46–0.58 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Sanford – White11:08
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk10:12
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly7:06
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Gaudette – Formenton – Stützle11:24
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub21:28
xG 0.89–0.64 (58%)attempts 22–20goals 1–1
- Brown – Brannstrom10:25
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Holden – Zaitsev16:14
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).