Thu, Mar 10, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 6, Detroit Red Wings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 19 | 215 | 07 | 2 | 641 |
| DET | 310 | 18 | 116 | 00 | 0 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37MINMatt BoldyAssists: Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:14DETJakub VranaAssists: Joseph Veleno, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:07MINJoel Eriksson EkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–1
- P1 14:09DETLucas RaymondAssists: Nick Leddy, Alex Nedeljkovic · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P1 18:31DETJakub VranaPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 5:52DETLucas RaymondAssists: Nick Leddy, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 9:31MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 3:04MINMatt BoldyAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 12:13MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mathew Dumba, Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.21 xG5–4
- P3 17:09DETJordan OesterleAssists: Filip Zadina, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. DET Jakub Vrana stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 3. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 4. MIN Kevin Fiala scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:33MINNick Bjugstad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:57MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:37MINJordan Greenway: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:30DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETAlex Nedeljkovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00MINCam Talbot: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 8:47MINNick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:47DETJoseph Veleno: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:28
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy12:05
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 2–3
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm5:36
xG 0.13–0.29 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:47
xG 0.15–0.46 (25%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:09
xG 0.81–0.52 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 2–2
- Goligoski – Spurgeon8:37
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Kulikov8:42
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestErne – Rasmussen – Zadina9:11
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Veleno7:59
xG 0.20–0.13 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter4:34
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Suter – Zadina2:20
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stecher14:59
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Leddy – Seider15:14
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 18–18goals 2–1
- Leddy – Stecher2:11
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).