Sat, Mar 12, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Arizona Coyotes 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 011 | 111 | 17 | 229 |
| BOS | 214 | 012 | 114 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33BOSCraig SmithAssists: Tomas Nosek, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 10:49BOSCraig SmithAssists: Trent Frederic, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 19:59ARIClayton KellerAssists: Dysin Mayo, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 2:15ARINick RitchieAssists: Barrett Hayton, Matias Maccelli · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 16:39BOSCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Trent Frederic, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:25ARIJ.J. Moser: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:48BOSPatrice Bergeron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:30BOSTrent Frederic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyd won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Hayton – Maccelli6:15
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Hayton4:28
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller16:30
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Nash – Fasching3:55
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Kolyachonok3:14
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stralman – Moser8:25
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Stralman – Mayo2:35
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk13:34
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Lazar – Nosek8:26
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Hall – Pastrnak13:48
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic10:18
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo14:45
xG 1.11–0.31 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Reilly – McAvoy15:13
xG 0.96–0.57 (63%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Forbort – Clifton13:16
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).