Sat, Mar 12, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 114 | 05 | 129 |
| CAR | 015 | 112 | 29 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:34CARSteven LorentzAssists: Derek Stepan, Jalen Chatfield · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 16:50PHIDerick BrassardAssists: Cam Atkinson, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 16:10CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Ian Cole · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:39CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:11PHIPatrick Brown: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:44CARJalen Chatfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:12CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:22PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Brassard – Atkinson12:34
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Farabee8:48
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Konecny – Frost10:04
xG 0.38–0.76 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Brown – MacEwen – Mayhew9:46
xG 0.08–0.91 (8%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov17:41
xG 0.72–0.64 (53%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Yandle – York9:29
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:31
xG 0.64–0.88 (42%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Martinook – Svechnikov12:44
xG 1.06–0.14 (88%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi7:30
xG 0.67–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Necas12:10
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast12:23
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Chatfield13:46
xG 1.02–0.20 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Slavin – Bear15:22
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce17:45
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).