Sun, Mar 13, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 112 | 213 | 13 | 437 |
| STL | 19 | 113 | 18 | 01 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:48STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 10:51WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 19:33STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 6:30WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 7:33WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 17:49STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 2:25WPGPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:47STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:46STLBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:28WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:28WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:25WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Connor – Dubois10:18
xG 0.97–0.30 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele15:52
xG 1.06–0.55 (66%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois3:42
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen2:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Stanley12:49
xG 1.08–0.36 (75%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:32
xG 1.13–0.79 (59%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:33
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Saad14:57
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Bozak – MacEachern – Toropchenko5:29
xG 0.22–0.23 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Kyrou10:00
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Barbashev – Brown5:06
xG 0.00–1.00 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Parayko15:51
xG 0.66–0.65 (50%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
- Parayko – Mikkola3:42
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Faulk – Mikkola4:04
xG 0.26–0.42 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).