Mon, Mar 14, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Arizona Coyotes 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 26 | 13 | 26 | 515 |
| OTT | 215 | 017 | 111 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 7:49ARILawson CrouseAssists: Phil Kessel, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 9:00ARILawson CrousePPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 14:01OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:12ARILawson CrouseSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 7:30OTTConnor BrownAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Artem Zub · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 7:46ARINick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:12ARIBarrett HaytonENAssists: J.J. Moser, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:45OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:29OTTThomas Chabot: Kneeing2 min
- P1 13:57ARINick Ritchie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:42ARIPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:53ARINick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ARIKyle Capobianco: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyd won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Nash – Carcone – Maccelli8:52
xG 0.21–0.52 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Kessel – Galchenyuk – Crouse13:06
xG 0.22–0.83 (21%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Hayton8:33
xG 0.18–0.90 (17%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller14:24
xG 0.21–1.24 (15%)attempts 3–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Capobianco – Kolyachonok13:16
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
- Stralman – Moser16:07
xG 0.31–1.20 (21%)attempts 7–21goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Mayo19:41
xG 0.11–1.01 (10%)attempts 5–29goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Norris – Tkachuk13:24
xG 1.45–0.18 (89%)attempts 23–2goals 2–1
- Ennis – Formenton – Stützle11:56
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 20–2goals 0–0
- Paul – Sanford – White12:49
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly5:13
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev13:11
xG 1.66–0.32 (84%)attempts 21–6goals 1–1
- Chabot – Brannstrom5:48
xG 0.66–0.10 (86%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Brannstrom9:26
xG 0.50–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).