Tue, Mar 15, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Arizona Coyotes 6, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 47 | 17 | 15 | 619 |
| MTL | 111 | 214 | 014 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 3:52ARIAnton StralmanAssists: Riley Nash, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 13:38MTLLaurent DauphinAssists: Jeff Petry, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 18:34ARINick RitchieAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Matias Maccelli · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P1 19:49ARILawson CrouseGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 17:49ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
- P2 18:47MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Chris Wideman, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
- P2 18:55MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Joel Armia, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 15:42ARINick SchmaltzENAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.64 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:57ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Interference2 min
- P1 16:29MTLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:44MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:04ARIPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:14MTLMike Hoffman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:41ARINick Ritchie: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:24MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fischer won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Crouse – Maccelli11:16
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Hayton8:04
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller11:13
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Kessel – Nash – Galchenyuk10:44
xG 0.10–1.03 (9%)attempts 4–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Gostisbehere2:49
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Moser10:15
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 4–16goals 1–1
- Stralman – Mayo2:46
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Gallagher – Suzuki13:04
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Byron – Armia – Evans5:33
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Armia – Pitlick – Caufield4:47
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Perreault – Dauphin – Pezzetta7:20
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Romanov18:52
xG 1.27–0.14 (90%)attempts 30–8goals 0–0
- Wideman – Schueneman10:49
xG 0.66–0.53 (56%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson15:08
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).