Tue, Mar 15, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 111 | 013 | 136 |
| NSH | 111 | 210 | 14 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:58NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 14:00PITJake GuentzelAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:40NSHTanner JeannotGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Colton Sissons · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:03NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:10NSHYakov TreninENAssists: Colton Sissons, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:54NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P1 15:22PITDanton Heinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:20NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:43PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P2 5:49NSHLuke Kunin: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:22NSHAlexandre Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:25PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:25NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:03PITDominik Simon: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:02PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:39PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues8:47
xG 0.82–0.15 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Boyle – Blueger – Simon6:56
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
- Carter – Kapanen – Zohorna7:38
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Heinen7:57
xG 0.26–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Marino9:32
xG 0.76–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin3:26
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Matheson – Marino4:50
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen6:31
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Cousins – McCarron – Tomasino7:39
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg8:34
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot6:56
xG 0.16–0.55 (23%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Myers2:41
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro13:01
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Carrier12:39
xG 0.15–0.67 (18%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).