Tue, Mar 15, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 5, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 18 | 315 | 535 |
| EDM | 417 | 05 | 310 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59EDMDevin ShoreAssists: Derek Ryan, Philip Broberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 3:11EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 4:35EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P1 8:46DETMarc StaalAssists: Moritz Seider, Taro Hirose · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P1 18:37EDMKailer YamamotoPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
- P2 18:06DETSam GagnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 2:18DETFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Taro Hirose, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 2:52DETMarc StaalAssists: Sam Gagner, Adam Erne · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 4:15EDMEvander KaneAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
- P3 6:32DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–5
- P3 14:35EDMWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Josh Archibald, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–6
- P3 18:51EDMEvander KaneENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:16DETAdam Erne: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:52DETGivani Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:33EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:14DETMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:22DETJoseph Veleno: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:22EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Suter – Zadina8:54
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Larkin – Raymond12:40
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Veleno8:51
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Larkin – Smith – Raymond2:06
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJuolevi – Hronek10:00
xG 1.00–0.34 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Juolevi – Stecher4:03
xG 0.65–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Stecher11:01
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Yamamoto13:38
xG 0.89–0.70 (56%)attempts 13–16goals 2–2
- Shore – Foegele – Ryan7:18
xG 0.27–0.33 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Malone – Kassian – Archibald4:05
xG 0.04–0.22 (16%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McLeod10:28
xG 0.09–0.52 (15%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Barrie2:08
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Barrie – Broberg10:54
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
- Keith – Bouchard15:01
xG 0.42–0.75 (36%)attempts 12–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).