Wed, Mar 16, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Seattle Kraken 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 114 | 112 | 216 | 442 |
| SEA | 112 | 07 | 06 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38SEAYanni GourdePPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:26TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:48TBLVictor HedmanPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 0:23TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 14:26TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:33TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:26TBLMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:44SEAWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:17TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P1 16:04SEAColin Blackwell: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:37TBLNikita Kucherov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:45SEAYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:25SEAWill Borgen: Interference2 min
- P3 7:12TBLJan Rutta: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:51SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:00SEAYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Joseph – Colton7:25
xG 0.79–0.02 (97%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli7:16
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Colton2:32
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Katchouk6:24
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta11:41
xG 1.06–0.22 (83%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Bogosian9:18
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev10:06
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Schwartz – McCann10:59
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Johansson – Donato – Geekie9:16
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Gourde – Appleton9:27
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn2:35
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Larsson – Lauzon11:09
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Soucy10:13
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).