Thu, Mar 17, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 1, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 011 | 110 | 128 |
| EDM | 212 | 213 | 211 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:21EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Connor McDavid, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:10EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 8:42EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 13:42EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Zach Hyman, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 3:21BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Colin Miller · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 5:58EDMDevin ShoreSHAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 15:36EDMTyson BarriePPAssists: Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.13 xG1–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 4:28BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P3 5:27EDMCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:19BUFVinnie Hinostroza: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt9:31
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Skinner – Hinostroza – Cozens2:34
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons10:28
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:12
xG 0.48–1.01 (32%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:17
xG 0.41–0.72 (37%)attempts 18–14goals 0–2
- Miller – Bryson15:41
xG 0.63–1.42 (31%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Samuelsson13:33
xG 0.25–1.31 (16%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi11:51
xG 1.06–0.40 (73%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto9:25
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Shore – Foegele – Ryan7:39
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kassian – Archibald – McLeod5:50
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse18:13
xG 1.65–0.74 (69%)attempts 25–17goals 3–1
- Keith – Bouchard15:45
xG 1.02–0.36 (74%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Russell – Barrie13:32
xG 0.68–0.30 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).