Thu, Mar 17, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 1, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 018 | 113 | 04 | 135 |
| VAN | 012 | 017 | 014 | 043 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:09DETPius SuterGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:18VANTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P2 6:09DETFilip Zadina: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:41DETPius Suter: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00DETJakub Vrana: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:16DETMarc Staal: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Larkin – Raymond12:42
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Veleno6:55
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Hirose7:29
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Suter – Zadina10:53
xG 0.63–1.08 (37%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJuolevi – Hronek13:22
xG 1.27–0.78 (62%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Stecher13:08
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Seider16:14
xG 0.27–0.72 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Boeser – Podkolzin7:53
xG 0.53–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Garland10:42
xG 0.70–0.52 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Petan – Pettersson8:00
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Pettersson – Podkolzin2:22
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes4:06
xG 0.64–0.05 (93%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hunt5:11
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes10:41
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).