Fri, Mar 18, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 214 | 08 | 114 | 04 | 1 | 440 |
| CAR | 16 | 26 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17CARSeth JarvisAssists: Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:32WSHEvgeny KuznetsovUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 10:45WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Connor McMichael, Garnet Hathaway · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 7:06CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Ethan Bear · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 19:47CARSeth JarvisAssists: Jordan Staal, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:56WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 4. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 5. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:50CARNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:50WSHConnor McMichael: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P1 17:55CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P1 17:55WSHAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:57WSHConnor McMichael: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:07CARBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 1:58WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P3 14:52CARVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 3:22CARSeth Jarvis: Holding2 min
- OT 4:40WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Mantha – Vecchione3:59
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Backstrom – Wilson – Mantha4:21
xG 0.21–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Sprong – McMichael5:51
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Sheary – Hathaway – McMichael3:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry17:19
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Schultz – Orlov5:17
xG 0.54–0.06 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk2:48
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKotkaniemi – Svechnikov – Jarvis2:09
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Jarvis3:42
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Aho6:18
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast7:52
xG 0.21–0.13 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Cole – Smith15:25
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce15:15
xG 0.54–0.88 (38%)attempts 14–19goals 2–1
- Slavin – Bear15:40
xG 0.54–0.89 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).