Fri, Mar 18, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 014 | 222 | 29 | 445 |
| WPG | 011 | 04 | 214 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:42BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Jack Studnicka · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:12BOSTrent FredericAssists: Charlie Coyle, Craig Smith · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 2:29WPGAdam LowryAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Nate Schmidt · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 3:54WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 15:13BOSTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 19:29BOSCharlie McAvoyENAssists: Tomas Nosek, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:44BOSMike Reilly: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 10:13BOSMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:59WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:37BOSErik Haula: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:36BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:05WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:59BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:57WPGLogan Stanley: Interference2 min
- P3 14:31WPGBrenden Dillon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 18:34BOSErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:29WPGJosh Morrissey: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:29WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Haula – Lazar5:06
xG 1.19–0.01 (99%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic11:11
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Marchand – DeBrusk – Studnicka8:15
xG 0.36–0.23 (60%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Lazar – Nosek2:58
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton8:46
xG 1.30–0.42 (76%)attempts 22–5goals 2–1
- Reilly – McAvoy14:22
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo3:11
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Connor – Dubois12:12
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Svechnikov6:30
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele13:09
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois2:04
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk12:45
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:02
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey2:01
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).