Sat, Mar 19, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 011 | 06 | 130 |
| MTL | 110 | 310 | 17 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:32MTLJake EvansAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:51OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Colin White, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:42MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 4:23MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 19:27MTLJoel ArmiaPPAssists: Corey Schueneman, Rem Pitlick · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 8:14MTLBrett KulakAssists: Nick Suzuki, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:34MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:50OTTTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:01MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:02OTTBrady Tkachuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:06OTTJosh Norris: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:06MTLChris Wideman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00MTLRem Pitlick: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Gambrell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Norris – Tkachuk11:08
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Ennis – Tierney – Gaudette10:40
xG 0.67–0.22 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell8:27
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Brown – Formenton – Stützle11:49
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub16:18
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Brown – Mete14:14
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Holden – Zaitsev17:06
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Dvorak10:40
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield11:31
xG 0.40–0.69 (37%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Drouin – Pitlick9:34
xG 0.18–0.52 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Evans – Pezzetta8:31
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Romanov15:05
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Wideman – Schueneman13:49
xG 0.52–0.47 (52%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Petry – Edmundson11:19
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).