Sat, Mar 19, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 316 | 113 | 115 | 544 |
| VAN | 04 | 010 | 211 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:46CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 13:51CGYRasmus AnderssonGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dillon Dube · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 4:29CGYElias LindholmAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 6:28CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–0
- P3 7:37VANMatthew HighmoreAssists: Juho Lammikko, Brad Hunt · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–1
- P3 17:14VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:56CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:41VANLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 4:45VANBrock Boeser: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:06CGYErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Lammikko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Gaudreau – Lindholm9:43
xG 1.02–0.12 (89%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Coleman – Mangiapane10:05
xG 0.90–0.25 (78%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Backlund – Tkachuk – Dube11:51
xG 0.88–0.29 (75%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Monahan10:02
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:26
xG 1.68–0.59 (74%)attempts 27–12goals 3–0
- Tanev – Kylington15:48
xG 1.03–0.23 (82%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov15:07
xG 0.66–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Pettersson – Podkolzin3:39
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser13:07
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Petan – Garland3:21
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Petan – Podkolzin3:56
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Hunt13:09
xG 0.81–1.02 (44%)attempts 20–15goals 1–2
- Schenn – Hughes15:19
xG 0.18–0.89 (16%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson16:25
xG 0.30–1.12 (21%)attempts 9–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).