Sat, Mar 19, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 019 | 114 | 316 | 449 |
| ARI | 05 | 110 | 06 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:09PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:28ARIClayton KellerAssists: Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 12:36PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 16:13PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–1
- P3 18:10PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:58ARIDysin Mayo: Interference2 min
- P2 15:47PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:59ARIBarrett Hayton: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:33ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:26PITKasperi Kapanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fischer won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Heinen11:08
xG 1.44–0.12 (92%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Guentzel2:27
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues11:11
xG 1.07–0.75 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Boyle – Blueger – Simon8:09
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Marino15:52
xG 1.54–0.44 (78%)attempts 20–11goals 2–1
- Letang – Dumoulin16:37
xG 1.28–0.79 (62%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson10:07
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Schmaltz – Keller8:29
xG 0.47–0.28 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Fischer – Crouse – Maccelli5:30
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Maccelli2:29
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Hayton7:41
xG 0.23–0.71 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Dineen – Kolyachonok11:52
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Stralman – Mayo2:15
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo16:04
xG 0.47–1.39 (25%)attempts 13–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).