Sat, Mar 19, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Detroit Red Wings 2, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 210 | 07 | 223 |
| SEA | 016 | 011 | 415 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:18DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 16:08DETTaro HirosePPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P3 7:10SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Vince Dunn, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 9:54SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Vince Dunn, Alexander Wennberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 13:03SEAYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Haydn Fleury · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 19:41SEAYanni GourdeENAssists: Mason Appleton, Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:59DETAdam Erne: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:28DETVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:28SEAAdam Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:11DETDylan Larkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:09DETLucas Raymond: Holding2 min
- P2 11:11DETDylan Larkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:48SEAVince Dunn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:40DETFilip Hronek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond2:59
xG 0.05–0.03 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Larkin – Raymond10:24
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Erne – Rasmussen – Hirose7:49
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Veleno8:41
xG 0.08–0.65 (11%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Hronek2:04
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Seider13:15
xG 0.37–0.83 (31%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Juolevi – Hronek13:12
xG 0.12–0.78 (13%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Schwartz – Wennberg11:38
xG 1.17–0.14 (89%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Johansson – McCann – Donato9:46
xG 0.73–0.05 (93%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Blackwell – Appleton2:38
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Geekie – Kuhlman7:47
xG 0.27–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDunn – Lauzon13:42
xG 1.23–0.19 (87%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Larsson – Fleury16:00
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Soucy13:37
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).