Tue, Mar 22, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 210 | 116 | 333 |
| DET | 28 | 210 | 213 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Givani Smith, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:15DETJakub VranaAssists: Pius Suter, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 1:07DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Gustav Lindstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 1:32PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Kevin Hayes, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 7:56PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Konecny, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 18:51DETJakub VranaGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 11:23PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Cam Atkinson, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 17:09DETOskar SundqvistENAssists: Pius Suter, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–5
- P3 18:49DETTyler BertuzziENAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.64 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:47DETGivani Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:10PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:10DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:36DETGustav Lindstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:51PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:51DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Atkinson – Farabee7:34
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Hayes – Lindblom – Konecny6:08
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Willman – Tippett – Frost5:47
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee3:41
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Seeler3:07
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Connauton – Seeler2:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Provorov – York17:57
xG 0.71–0.74 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Vrana – Suter10:16
xG 0.98–0.35 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Smith – Veleno10:38
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Larkin – Zadina – Raymond12:21
xG 0.29–0.53 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Gagner – Erne – Rasmussen9:50
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Hronek16:26
xG 1.18–0.25 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 2–2
- Walman – Lindstrom13:59
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Seider18:37
xG 0.53–1.03 (34%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).