Wed, Mar 23, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 03 | 211 | 08 | 222 |
| TOR | 011 | 211 | 19 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:03NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 12:30TORIlya MikheyevSHAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 13:56NJDNico HischierAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 14:54TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 15:18TORPierre EngvallSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:42NJDKevin Bahl: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:38TORPierre Engvall: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:22NJDP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:49TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:23TORIlya Mikheyev: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:55NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Greer – Bastian – McLeod4:14
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer11:40
xG 0.22–0.38 (36%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Vesey – Johnsson – Boqvist9:41
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Bratt – Hischier10:09
xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler13:03
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Subban – Bahl10:33
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Severson – Graves15:53
xG 0.42–0.91 (32%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander12:01
xG 0.46–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews14:39
xG 0.91–0.56 (62%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev7:33
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Blackwell3:58
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl14:57
xG 0.84–0.58 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Giordano – Liljegren13:11
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin13:20
xG 0.58–0.50 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).