Thu, Mar 24, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 16 | 110 | 224 |
| BOS | 012 | 117 | 210 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:11TBLBrandon HagelSHAssists: Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 9:55BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Erik Haula, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 3:51TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 8:17BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Erik Haula, Connor Clifton · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 15:50BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.30 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:20TBLErik Cernak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 5:17BOSCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:19TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P2 6:04TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:47BOSJeremy Swayman: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:57TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:57BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:47BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:48TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:21BOSDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:21TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Palat2:07
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Hagel4:21
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Paul – Cirelli – Colton4:32
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare6:24
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Sergachev2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta9:58
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Sergachev – Rutta2:41
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hall – Pastrnak7:56
xG 1.06–0.18 (86%)attempts 15–4goals 3–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic9:16
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Marchand – DeBrusk – Studnicka8:28
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Lazar – Nosek8:57
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy12:37
xG 1.27–0.24 (84%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo12:51
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton10:18
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).