Thu, Mar 24, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 114 | 013 | 136 |
| VGK | 215 | 220 | 215 | 650 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31VGKMattias JanmarkAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Chandler Stephenson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:45VGKNicolas RoyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 3:14VGKEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 5:00NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.32 xG1–3
- P2 8:41VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 14:42VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 17:07VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Nicolas Roy, Evgenii Dadonov · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–6
Penalties (12)
- P2 2:52NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:01VGKKeegan Kolesar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:28NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P2 7:25NSHBen Harpur: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:36VGKWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min
- P3 6:20NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:41NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:41VGKMattias Janmark: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:10NSHMatt Tennyson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:37VGKMattias Janmark: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:37NSHNick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:37VGKMattias Janmark: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Tolvanen – Tomasino5:37
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Cousins – McCarron – Luff8:02
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:59
xG 0.81–0.81 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Kunin9:22
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Lauzon7:50
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier7:19
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Tennyson2:26
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Janmark – Carrier10:03
xG 0.90–0.45 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Kolesar12:10
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Eichel – Roy9:27
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hutton15:24
xG 1.30–0.70 (65%)attempts 26–13goals 2–0
- Theodore – Coghlan13:43
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Hutton – Theodore2:29
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).