Sat, Mar 26, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 212 | 116 | 338 |
| WSH | 07 | 19 | 36 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:55NJDJack HughesAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 2:47WSHTom WilsonAssists: Conor Sheary, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 7:17NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Ryan Graves, Jesper Boqvist · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:08WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Justin Schultz, John Carlson · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 6:56WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 11:48WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 19:28NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:27WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:45NJDRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:12NJDMichael McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:12WSHNick Jensen: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:12WSHNick Jensen: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:12NJDMichael McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:05WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:40NJDTy Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Boqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Johnsson – Boqvist10:46
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Bratt – Hischier12:41
xG 1.08–0.76 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer13:52
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Greer – Bastian – McLeod4:02
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Smith14:02
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Severson – Graves15:47
xG 1.13–0.77 (59%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler14:21
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby10:48
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Mantha2:14
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Wilson – Sheary – McMichael6:14
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – McMichael3:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Orlov2:46
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen9:37
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Jensen – Kempny3:12
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).