Sat, Mar 26, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 5, Calgary Flames 9
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 218 | 39 | 04 | 531 |
| CGY | 39 | 313 | 316 | 938 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32EDMDerick BrassardAssists: Evan Bouchard, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:28CGYElias LindholmAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 14:23CGYChris TanevAssists: Blake Coleman, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 14:39CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P1 19:01EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 0:44EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.25 xG3–3
- P2 3:07CGYOliver KylingtonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P2 3:52EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P2 5:06CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
- P2 7:39CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–6
- P2 9:18EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–6
- P3 2:55CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–7
- P3 6:01CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–8
- P3 14:23CGYDillon DubeAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–9
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:54CGYErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:42CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:36CGYTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:10CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:13CGYErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:02EDMDuncan Keith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:19EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00EDMDerick Brassard: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:19CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:19EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:19EDMMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:19CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:39EDMBrett Kulak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi5:59
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto6:48
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McLeod4:36
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
- Kassian – Shore – Foegele8:21
xG 0.05–0.59 (8%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse9:14
xG 0.89–0.60 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 0–3
- Barrie – Kulak9:31
xG 0.55–0.37 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Ceci – Kulak2:29
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:39
xG 1.63–0.77 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 5–1
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane8:44
xG 0.69–0.19 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Coleman – Dube5:58
xG 0.88–0.73 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Carpenter7:15
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson15:52
xG 1.45–0.67 (68%)attempts 27–17goals 2–0
- Tanev – Kylington12:17
xG 1.24–0.53 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov14:12
xG 0.90–1.26 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).