Mon, Mar 28, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 1, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 110 | 012 | 010 | 132 |
| EDM | 216 | 319 | 17 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 10:24EDMRyan McLeodGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 15:52ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:32EDMRyan McLeodPPAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 12:28EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.33 xG1–4
- P2 16:11EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.28 xG1–5
- P3 9:53EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:50ARIDysin Mayo: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:51EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:57ARINick Schmaltz: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 6:14ARIVladislav Kolyachonok: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:06EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06ARIDysin Mayo: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:38EDMEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P3 4:32EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Boyd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Schmaltz – Keller4:43
xG 0.33–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Jenik5:32
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller7:20
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Galchenyuk – Jenik2:32
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCapobianco – Kolyachonok12:08
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Mayo12:08
xG 0.35–0.68 (34%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Stralman – Dineen12:27
xG 0.72–1.22 (37%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:11
xG 1.16–0.43 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod5:54
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Yamamoto8:35
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Brassard – Archibald – Nugent-Hopkins6:07
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak13:05
xG 1.17–0.51 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 3–0
- Keith – Bouchard13:52
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:53
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).