Fri, Apr 1, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 09 | 410 | 532 |
| DET | 06 | 113 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07OTTAustin WatsonSHAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:18DETLucas RaymondAssists: Jake Walman · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
- P3 2:25OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 3:36OTTMathieu JosephGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Colin White · Snap, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 13:19OTTMathieu JosephAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 13:59DETLucas RaymondAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 16:05OTTMathieu JosephENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:34OTTAlex Formenton: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:17DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:17OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:17OTTTim Stützle: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:36DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52OTTMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:49DETLucas Raymond: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:07OTTNick Holden: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – White – Joseph5:29
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Watson – Gaudette – Gambrell6:51
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Joseph – Norris – Tkachuk2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Batherson2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev11:40
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Brannstrom – Zub16:26
xG 0.88–0.83 (51%)attempts 22–10goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Hamonic13:27
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond9:02
xG 0.54–0.04 (94%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Erne – Suter9:13
xG 0.61–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Rasmussen – Zadina – Hirose8:26
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Veleno7:54
xG 0.00–1.16 (0%)attempts 0–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Lindstrom15:10
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Seider11:08
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Seider2:02
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).