Tue, Feb 15, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 010 | 38 | 428 |
| NSH | 015 | 08 | 111 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17WSHJoe SnivelyAssists: Conor Sheary, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P3 2:43NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Roman Josi, Dante Fabbro · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 3:27WSHNick JensenGWGAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 4:33WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:37WSHAlex OvechkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 6:25NSHMichael McCarron: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:03WSHJoe Snively: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:54NSHMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:54NSHYakov Trenin: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:27NSHMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
- P3 16:07WSHNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:00NSHAlexandre Carrier: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway13:19
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Sheary – Snively8:50
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Eller – Sprong – McMichael10:33
xG 0.79–0.78 (50%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:11
xG 0.09–0.62 (13%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen12:05
xG 1.42–0.36 (80%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk4:41
xG 0.05–0.05 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk4:50
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Tomasino – Smith7:23
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:42
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen9:35
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg15:04
xG 0.64–0.81 (44%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning10:21
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier14:57
xG 0.70–0.63 (53%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro16:41
xG 0.83–0.88 (49%)attempts 22–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).