Sun, Apr 3, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 5, Buffalo Sabres 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 322 | 29 | 540 |
| BUF | 110 | 08 | 211 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:13BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Cody Eakin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 6:18FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 15:55FLAAnton LundellAssists: Ben Chiarot, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:01FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Gustav Forsling, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 0:57FLAAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 8:25BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.80 xG4–2
- P3 10:19BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 18:25FLAMacKenzie WeegarPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.14 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 10:17BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:25FLARobert Hagg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20FLAAnthony Duclair: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:02BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:04BUFMattias Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Marchment – Lundell11:22
xG 0.64–0.14 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – Huberdeau – Bennett9:34
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov10:13
xG 0.87–0.65 (57%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Thornton – Lomberg – Luostarinen7:13
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling15:42
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Gudas – Forsling2:32
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Gudas12:23
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt9:43
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Krebs – Cozens8:19
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons11:22
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:37
xG 0.19–0.75 (21%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Samuelsson15:17
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Bryson12:02
xG 0.56–0.47 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin17:41
xG 0.25–1.26 (17%)attempts 11–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).