Sun, Apr 3, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 09 | 117 | 232 |
| OTT | 114 | 214 | 28 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:21DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Jakub Vrana, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:18OTTArtem ZubAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mathieu Joseph · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:32OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 14:16OTTJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Nick Holden, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 12:35DETDylan LarkinAssists: Filip Hronek, Marc Staal · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 18:23OTTJosh NorrisENAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Nikita Zaitsev · Snap, 0.72 xG2–4
- P3 19:15OTTNikita ZaitsevENAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:53DETJoseph Veleno: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:01DETJake Walman: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:12DETGustav Lindstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:54DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:43OTTAustin Watson: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:06OTTNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Veleno – Zadina4:56
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Raymond5:26
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Vrana – Rasmussen – Suter6:04
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 1–1
- Erne – Larkin – Raymond8:07
xG 0.14–0.58 (19%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Seider9:09
xG 0.67–0.23 (75%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Seider3:10
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Walman – Lindstrom10:09
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Norris – Tkachuk7:48
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk3:13
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Joseph2:36
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Gaudette – Gambrell4:20
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Hamonic15:14
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Holden – Zaitsev15:58
xG 0.79–0.81 (50%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Zub11:45
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).